Monday, April 21, 2003
What drives the economy?
15 years ago I started asking economists I met about what drives the economy. I am beginning to see it a little now. My gut feeling for what drives the economy goes something like this. There are inputs, energy from the sun as bio-matter, an input of petroleum or electricity, raw materials like gold, coal, sand etc. Black box processing and consumption by people and businesses transforms these inputs. The Scientific American used to put out charts with all these factors listed graphically. Things like services cause a lot of spin in the market until all the inputs get consumed a little at a time. (This means the GNP is suspect since it calculates this churn). The real input and output to this economic black box is driven by human perception (why do we buy red jeans?) and modified by the business and technical skills of the people involved. So depressions and recessions are in some way affected by human sentiments. I do not purport to know how to read these sentiments precisely. Right now Bush is trying to buy his market sentiment, for a mere additional U$550 Billion. If it succeeds, it is supposed to whip up public sentiment. I think most people see past this, but not the controlling politicians. John Kenneth Galbraith poo-poos the ability of the president to affect things more than a tiny bit.
posted by Nick 7:58:00 PM
Tuesday, April 08, 2003
I've been home for 5 months. Not as productive as I had hoped. Someone is always sick, or needs attention. There are always external obligations. My littlest 3 year old is a bit of a terror. I have resigned myself to not have delicate things around until he gets older. I can't put stuff up high enough now, because he can climb. And he bites. I have resigned myself to replacing anything delicate after he gets a older.
The older two take homework as a recommendation rather than an obligation. Ouch. But they are all bright.
posted by Nick 2:08:00 AM
Its been several weeks since I posted last. I and mine have gotten a cough, and now we are more or less over it. My beloved wife broke her kneecap, while practicing her figure skating. Ouch. Now she gets driven around. Boy oh boy oh. Two more months till she walks normally.
My youngest siblings turned 40 today. They seem reasonably comfortable with this state of affairs. I found the lead-up more of an issue than the event.
SARS is spreading, and the war seems to have hit a plateau with the latest bombing of the command meeting site. Perhaps the enemy is destroyed. We'll find out soon.
posted by Nick 1:08:00 AM
